Prospects of the Energy Sector in Turkey

Energy is one of the main driving forces behind the growth of every country in the world. Despite economic crises and downturns in the global economy, global energy demand is very likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future. This surging demand is likely to put increasing pressure on the global energy prices regardless of new investments for the renewable energy sources and new explorations for additional fossil energy resources.

According to a recent “McKinsey Global Institute” analysis, global commodity prices (including energy) are expected to remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold. One major reason of the volatility is that global demand is surging and supplies currently remain relatively inelastic. Approximately 87% portion of global energy is currently being produced from fossil fuels. In 2008, energy supply by power source was, oil 33.5%, coal 26.8%, gas 20.8%, renewable (hydro, solar, wind, geothermal power and biofuels) 12.9%, nuclear 5.8% and other 4%. Oil was the most popular energy fuel in the world. Oil and coal combined represented over 60% of the world energy supply in 2008. More importantly, approximately 46% portion of global oil production is currently being subject to regional energy trade and this amount is expected to rise in the near future.

As far as fossil fuels are concerned, long-term marginal costs are increasing for many fossil  resources as depletion rates accelerate and new investments are made in more complex and less productive locations. Therefore, like many other countries, Turkey is also considering to diversify its energy supplies and to increase the use of renewable energy resources.

Turkey currently imports almost 74% of its energy demand. Despite new energy pipeline projects (that are under development) and new exploration projects for additional fossil fuels, Turkey puts greater emphasis on the diversification of its energy resources as well as wider use of domestic energy resources. In the meantime, Turkey is also considering to increase the use of renewable energy resources including the use of biofuels. Clearly, there is a huge potential in Turkey for new investments especially in the wind and solar energy plants, small scale hydroelectric plants (low installation costs and suitable for regional energy demands), and geothermal energy power plants (as Turkey has 8% of the geothermal energy potential in the world which does not exist in most countries).

  

As far as global consumption trends are concerned, we are entering an era that, more efficient use of commodities (including energy) is on the rise. Most of the new “product development” activities in the world now aim efficiency and better energy consumption. New motor vehicles and transportation equipments, domestic appliances, industrial equipments, lighting equipments and even commercial aircrafts (such as Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 XWB) all aim less energy consumption and more efficiency. Countries constantly set new strategies for better use of energy resources and wider proportion of renewable energy resources in their total energy consumptions.

In the medium to long term, efficient use of energy resources will be the main focus point in the world rather than exploration of new fossil energy resources. With this in mind, Turkey  continues towards its strategy for wider use renewable energy resources not because of surging energy prices but also for the protection of its ecosystem and environment. On the renewable energy front, more research and development is essential in order to form scientific data sets. More importantly, data sets for the renewable energy resources should be carefully maintained and updated on a regular basis. The observations especially for solar and wind energy projects should be conducted regionally on a regular basis. The new energy policy and strategy of Turkey should aim efficient and eco-friendly use of domestic energy resources. By 2023, 3.43% of the total electricity consumption in Turkey is expected to be supplied from wind energy plants.

Turkey is currently not using its solar energy potential. Although this may be attributed to the expensive nature of high-tech solar energy equipments, Turkey is a country with a major solar energy potential compared with much of the northern Europe.  If needed, international cooperation for solar energy technology should be done with countries that own substantial solar energy technology such as the U.S., Canada and Germany. Besides, Turkey should also continue to support research & development and implementation activities for new domestic wind energy projects on a high scale.

In short, current energy policy and strategies show that Turkey is diversifying its external energy resources for a more stable and safer future. On the other hand, current energy sector strategies also suggest that more renewable energy resources (hydroelectric, wind, solar, biofules) will be on the agenda for new energy investment opportunities in Turkey. Nuclear power on the other hand, will remain to be a sensitive issue in Turkey’s overall energy strategy as most countries currently contemplate on the future of nuclear energy  based on the recent negative effects of global natural disasters.

HAKKI SUNAR